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It’s been an active start to the Atlantic hurricane season, and that doesn’t appear to be letting up anytime soon.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), which updated its forecast for the season with a warning the “extremely active hurricane season,” it could end up being one of the most active on record. In all, NOAA expects the region will see 17 to 24 named storms, including 8 to 13 hurricanes, four to seven of which could become major hurricanes with winds of 111 mph or more.
So far, the Atlantic has seen four named storms, two of which became tropical storms and two of which were elevated to hurricanes, including last week’s damaging Hurricane Debby and last month’s Hurricane Beryl, which became the earliest storm to reach Category 5 status. Hurricane season officially runs from June 1 to Nov. 30.
“NOAA’s update to the hurricane seasonal outlook is an important reminder that the peak of hurricane season is right around the corner, when historically the most significant impacts from hurricanes and tropical storms tend to occur,” NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad said in a statement, adding this year’s “hurricane season got off to an early and violent start with Hurricane Beryl.”
The mid-season forecast is on par with the Administration’s pre-season predictions, which anticipated an “above-normal” 2024 hurricane season for the Atlantic basin region. Typically, NOAA said the region should see a total of 14 named storms, just seven of which become hurricanes.
The increased activity can be traced back to atmospheric and oceanic conditions, including warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, reduced vertical wind shear, weaker tropical Atlantic trade winds, and an enhanced west African monsoon.
Future storms this season will be named: Ernesto, Francine, Gordon, Helene, Isaac, Joyce, Kirk, Leslie, Milton, Nadine, Oscar, Patty, Rafael, Sara, Tony, Valerie, and William.
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